Sunday, April 23, 2017

My Hot Take on the Election

Here.

Ouf!

Macron 23, Le Pen 21, JLM/Fillon 19. Best possible outcome from my point of view. Now a complicated game begins to determine the complexion of the Macron government. Vive la France, vive la République!

Saturday, April 22, 2017

Arun's Summary

Arun Kapil gives us a terrific roundup of how things stand on the eve of the contest.

Friday, April 21, 2017

Dernière Ligne Droite

Well, it's coming to the wire, and madness reigns more than ever. Last night's terror attack en plein non-débat may have shaken things up yet again, just as the undecided were coming off the fence. I am in Indiana, where I have been lecturing on the election at Purdue. I refused to make any prediction during my talks here, and I woke up this morning still with no idea how this will turn out. My gut tells me ... nothing. And since I've been watching French elections now for (gasp!) half a century, my profound ambivalence should tell you something.

My sense is that Macron hasn't closed the deal, Mélenchon has been hitting all the high notes lately, Fillon's sheer bull-headedness has kept him in contention, and Marine Le Pen has reverted to form, partly erasing the gains she had made in de-demonizing the party. But I just don't know how it's going to end. On Sunday we'll know. Brexit and Trump have taught me to expect the unexpected, but the possibility of an impending disaster is never easy to contemplate. And this could end in complete and utter disaster.

How's that for a pessimistic start to your day.

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Critique of French Polling Methods

Political scientist Jean-Yves Dormagen criticizes the methods used by French pollsters, in particular their use of quotas based on gender, age, and socioeconomic status. All pollsters are obliged to "correct" their samples to compensate for non-randomness in survey responses, but Dormagen argues that the quotas employed in France are applied to categories that are too broad and unrepresentative.

So beware of accepting the poll rankings (currently Macron no. 1, Le Pen 2, Mélenchon 3, and Fillon 4) as definitive. Big surprises may be in store. I'm making no bets on the outcome. Still biting my nails.

The Last Roundup

There won't be a final debate before the first round, but there will be a program on France2 in which each of the 11 candidates will be interviewed for 15 minutes by 2 journalists (with 2 1/2 minutes additional for "droit de réponse"). It's an interesting gambit and strikes me as potentially more useful than yet another 11-way debate, but everything will depend on the ability of the journalists to get the candidates off their prepared talking points and into some sort of discussion. (This is not easy. I know: I've tried it with a few professional politicians, and avoiding any deviation into uncharted waters is what they excel at.) I'm not sure who will watch such a marathon, but there will probably be a large audience for the highlight reels, which could influence the final result with the race so close.

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Elie Cohen Dismantles Pro-Frexit Arguments

This very good piece demonstrates why electing either Le Pen or Mélenchon would be a disaster.

Russian Meddling?

The Times has a report on purported Russian meddling in the French election. The goal seems more to defeat Macron rather than secure the election of one of the other three front-runners, all of whom--remarkable fact!--are friendly to Russia.

Philippot

If Marine Le Pen has changed the face of the FN, she has done it with the help of Florian Philippot, of whom Le Monde has an excellent profile this morning.